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View Full Version : Interesting read on the future of computing



impalanar
04-30-2010, 01:24 PM
I recommend reading the whole thing.

http://felicia.posterous.com/the-real-reason-why-steve-jobs-hates-flash-ch-1


PCs are becoming commodity items. The price of PCs and laptops is falling by about 50% per decade in real terms, despite performance simultaneously rising in real terms. The profit margin on a typical netbook or desktop PC is under 10%. Apple has so far survived this collapse in profitability by aiming at the premium end of the market — if they were an auto manufacturer, they'd be Mercedes, BMW, Porsche and Jaguar rolled into one. But nevertheless, the underlying prices are dropping. Moreover, the PC revolution has saturated the market at any accessible price point. That is, anyone who needs and can afford a PC has now got one. Elsewhere, in the developing world, the market is still growing — but it's at the bottom end of the price pyramid, with margins squeezed down to nothing.

At the same time, wireless broadband is coming. As it does so, organizations and users will increasingly move their data out into the cloud (read: onto hordes of servers racked up high in anonymous data warehouses, owned and maintained by some large corporation like Google). Software will be delivered as a service to users wherever they are, via whatever device they're looking at — their phone, laptop, tablet, the TV, a direct brain implant, whatever. (Why is this? Well, it's what everyone believes — everyone in the industry, anyway. Because it offers a way to continue to make money, by selling software as a service, despite the cost of the hardware exponentially dropping towards zero. And, oh, it lets you outsource a lot of annoying shitty admin tasks like disk management, backup, anti-virus, and so on.)

SpeedGeek
05-01-2010, 12:18 AM
For typical consumer type stuff, and some business stuff, yes I see this happening. There will always be general purpose machines and os and such around though for high end content creation. But yes we are moving more and more to a cloud/subscription model for a lot of things, particularly on the consumer side.

impalanar
05-01-2010, 02:52 AM
For typical consumer type stuff, and some business stuff, yes I see this happening. There will always be general purpose machines and os and such around though for high end content creation. But yes we are moving more and more to a cloud/subscription model for a lot of things, particularly on the consumer side.

I blame MMORPGs, they started that sh**. :lol:

jkhonea
05-01-2010, 02:58 AM
Security is my main concern with cloud computing. Yeah, I know that security is a very vague term, but I still think that's going to be one of the main considerations. I've been reading these predictions for a few years now and figure its only a matter of time.

SpeedGeek
05-01-2010, 12:32 PM
Ok, I finally got around to reading the full writeup, and I have to say, the author is dead on. Yes, there will continue to be full General purpose computers, but those will slowly be relegated to commercial/professional development/design shops that need the flexibility. Most home users are perfectly happy with web-based everything, and as such their OS doesn't need to support much beyond that.

As far as security, that is a concern, but I assume data will get stored encrypted, and xfer'ed encrypted. Besides, given how vulnerable most PC's are these days to viruses/spyware/malware, I see it simply as trading one security risk for another.... And handing it over to companies that have people dedicated to security rather than home users who know nothing about it.

We'll see though... There have been PLENTY of predictions about where the computing industry would go ever since the 1940's... More often than not they end up being wrong due to a surprise development causing a massive paradigm shift.

I DO find it somewhat hilarious that in the 48 hours leading up to the iPad 3G release, HP drops their Windows 7 based Slate, HP buys Palm, and MS kills off work on their Courier concept. MS'es days are numbered unless they give up their dogmatic reliance on Windows and take on some radical new thinking. They tried to get into the search space, and until Bing! had failed miserable (and I don't think Bing! is all that honestly), their mobile offerings haven't kept up with the competition, and while Windows 7 is nice (compared to XP/Vista) it just feels to me like a "forced" upgrade, rather than one that offers serious improvements to the way we use computers. Do you REALLY need all the features they keep adding into MS Office that they seem to insist we upgrade every 2-3 years at $200+ a pop? Most people use only a small fraction of the features, and those were features found in Office 2000...